บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

After the abrupt end of its procurement for the Venezuela’s superheavy crudes due to the US State Department’s sanctions in September 2020, TASO’s net profit has faced grave challenges on seeking new heavy crudes to replace the lucrative Venezuela crudes, resulting in an annual net profit decline from THB2.0b-THB4.0b in 2015-20 down to THB1.0b-THB2.0b since 2021. We initiated coverage on TASCO with a BUY and a TP of THB21, based on an EV/EBITDA of 11.5x, which is above its 5-year average of 10.4x but below its peak of 12x. We think TASCO’s premium valuations are justified by its earnings sustainability, leading industry position in Thailand’s asphalt market, and most importantly the structural change in asphalt industry that should see longer-for-higher asphalt-crude margin as new supply is limited while demand growth continues to outpace supply.