บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

IVL’s 2Q25 net loss (NL) was THB521m, improving from a NL of THB1.3b in 1Q25 and a NL of THB23b in 2Q24, due to declines in cPET and Indovinya margins, the USD48m higher energy cost, USD11m impairment cost, USD2m hedging loss, and USD23m inventory loss. Excluding non-recurring items, 2Q25 core net profit (NP) was THB595m, up from a NL of THB975m in 1Q25 but down 51% y-y. EBITDA was THB9.3b, down 0.3% q-q and 31% y-y and EBITDA margin was 7.9% vs 9.3% in 2Q24. 2Q25 sales volume dipped to 3.3mt (+1.8% q-q, -10% y-y) and utilisation rate was 80% in 2Q25, up from 78% in 1Q25 and 79% in 2Q24. Maintain BUY and our TP of THB28, based on 7x 2025E EV/EBITDA. While the industry oversupply is likely to continue in China, we however remain positive on IVL’s net profit outlook in 2H25-2027 as we think demand recoveries in China, higher benefits from US market on rising tariff, and the cost saving gains will be the key drivers.