บทวิเคราะห์ (Research)

In 3Q25, CPALL reported revenue of THB243b (-3% q-q, +4% y-y), broadly in line with our forecast, with GPM ~22.8% (flat q-q/y-y) supported by continued strength in ready-to-eat/All Café and ongoing network rollout. The y-y comparison benefited from a cleaner base—3Q24 included a THB0.5b FX loss and CPAXT amalgamation one-offs, whereas 3Q25 booked a modest THB0.1b FX gain and no one-offs. Interest expense also improved, easing to roughly THB3.6b (vs a typical THB3.8b+ run-rate since 2022), reflecting tighter financial discipline. Consequently, net profit was THB 6.6b (-3% q-q, +18% y-y), slightly above our THB 6.4b estimate. We maintain BUY on CPALL with TP THB65, implying 2026E P/E 19x (−1SD). At ~13x forward P/E, valuation is undemanding, with downside cushioned by strong fundamental, stable GPM (~22.8%), and 4Q seasonality. Risks: weak consumption, slow tourism, and adverse weather. Call: accumulate on dips.